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August 29, 2007

Weekend Holiday Outlook: Western Heat, Eastern Delight, Midwestern Dry Out

Weather Roundup.png The outlook for the next week looks beautiful for the East while the West continues swelter with high temps. Temperatures in Los Angeles will remain in the upper 90’s through the weekend while New Yorkers and New Englanders will enjoy comfortable temps in the low 80’s with abundant sunshine. Today, another dry day on tap but a few showers will start to creep in Thursday night and Friday morning. In the Midwest, more storms will flare up across the plains today. Severe weather is possible around lower Michigan and Illinois. This is not good for areas that have already seen surplus amounts of rainfall. Once front clears through, drier weather will filter in. Graphics courtesy of Accuweather

August 28, 2007

Jeffsweather.com Recent Press

USA Today: East Coast Tropical Trouble

Reuters: Record Heat in Eastern U.S

USA Today: Massive Storm causes Brooklyn Tornado and NYC Subway Delays


USA Today: Major Changes for Northeast

USA Today: Major Heat Wave in California causes Power Outages

USA Today: Eastern Heatwave

USA Today: Record Eastern Heat

USA Today: Weekend Weather Concerns for Northeast

USA Today: Labor Day Weekend Forecast

USA Today: Stalled Front, Weather Woes

USA Today: Cold for the Northeast

Seattle Spokesman Review: Weather Blogs

August 27, 2007

Hurricane Outlook looks Busy over the Next Few Weeks

2007 hurricane season.jpgIt looks to be a quiet end of August in the Tropics. Last week we dealt with Hurricane Dean in the Caribbean and Mexico and Tropical Storm Erin in the gulf, yet no storms to look at on the map today. There is a weak tropical wave moving into the southwestern Caribbean but we could see it develop into a depression in a few days. That storm would become Felix.. I took a look at the GFS at 10:30 PM and it showed signs of a developing system in the central Atlantic the second week of September, but we know those models change so often. photo credit: NOAA


Fires in Greece Continue to Burn

Fires in Greece 2007.jpgFires in Greece continue burn with over 80 still blazing in the north of the country and in the south peloponnese Peninsula. More than 60 people have now been killed destroying hundreds of homes. Helicopters have been dousing flames, but have not been very effective. Fires in Greece are common during hot dry summers but not like the past week. The government in Greece has issues a reward of up to one million euros for information on any arsonists. The problem at large is the major winds that continue to fuel the fires.


Lunar Eclipse Tonight

If you are up late or get up early on Tuesday, you'll notice the moon will be passing through the shadow of the Earth. Although we're used to seeing shadows as dark areas, the Earth's shadow will give the moon a reddish, or coppery color. The partial eclipse begins at 3:51 AM Tuesday. Totality starts at 4:52 AM and lasts until 6:22 AM. The eclipse ends at 7:23 AM. By that point the sun will be up, so it might be hard to notice anything different about the moon.



August 25, 2007


August 23, 2007

Violent Storms in Chicago Cause Rush Hour Chaos

Lighting over fire island.jpgWhile the East is starting to warm back up, severe weather in Chicago paralyzed the evening commute. More than 265,000 ConEd customers are without power Thursday night. As the storms hit Chicago, Metra commuters were stranded on trains after power lines toppled. At midway and O'Hare more than 500 flights were canceled. On top of that, the deluge of rain caused the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District to open locks on the North Shore allowing million of gallons of raw and partially treated sewage into Lake Michigan.

The culprit of all this is a stalled out front, which has caused most of the flooding. A number of locations are dealing with 6-day rainfall totals over 12 inches. Another stalled out front will cause thunderstorms to drench the area from Kansas to Lower Michigan Friday. photo credit: Sebastian White

Blast of Record Heat in Eastern U.S and Europe

Record Hit South east.jpg It's not only the Southeast U.S that is baking in heat. It's areas of Eastern Europe, including Turkey, Ukraine and Russia. Temperatures are soaring into the 100's in certain locations. The temperature hit 101 degrees in Greece, yet the hottest spot was 107 in Turkey. The reason for this all this excessive heat is because of the Scirocco winds off of the Sahara Desert.

Closer to home, we are still expecting to see temperatures reach into the 90's over the weekend over much of the East. High temperatures this month across the Southeast have been averaging between 5 and 10 degrees above normal. In contrast, Philadelphia, Pa., tied its previous coolest high temperature record from 1965 with a high of 69 degrees. It also marked the third consecutive day that the high failed to reach the 70s, (first time since 1940 that has happened in August). In the midwest, several northern Ohio counties are under states of emergency. Rising flood waters have inundated the area and caused catastrophic damage. It's the worst flooding in a century. In other news In the west, many wildfires are burning throughout Nevada, Oregon, Washington and Montana. Jeff's Weather story covered by Reuters.

August 22, 2007

Major Weather Changes Ahead for Northeast

New York Cold Temperatures.jpg Autumn like temps hit Northeast: It’s been an amazingly cool weather pattern since this weekend for much of the Northeast. I’m looking at all the observations and models and it’s surprising what’s going on right now. A stalled out front draping across the Mid Atlantic has created a major boundary between cold and warm air. North of the front, temps in New York are in the 50’s and 60’s and south of the front, temps across Virgina are in the 90’s. There will be major changes ahead the next few days as warm air returns to the entire area. From Boston to D.C, temperatures are expected to reach near 90 until the middle of the week. We will see a brief return of summer for the weekend. Ahead, we can look at comfortable sunny, yet cool conditions for the upcoming labor day holiday. It’s still a little early, but the models are showing a shot of cool air coming down from Canada. This will provide cool nights and sunny days. A definite early taste of Autumn.


Tropical Trouble Update:As for Hurricane Dean, the storm made a second landfall between Tampico and Veracruz on Wednesday. Max sustained winds are near 100 MPH. The storm had strengthened over the Bay of Campeche and reached category 2 status. The first landfall of Dean hit around 3:30 AM on Tuesday with sustained winds at 165 MPH. Cancun and Cozumel did not recieve the brunt of the storm but tremendous waves (15-25ft) crashed along the shore resulting in tremendous beach erosion. *graphics provided by accuweather pro.

August 21, 2007

Fire Island Nature Photos

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Mexico Braces for Catastrophic Damage

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Fire Island Weekend Weather: Cold Front Signals Changes

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Hurricane Dean Cat 5 - Path

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August 20, 2007

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August 16, 2007

Hurricane Dean Continues to Intesify: 350 miles east of Barbados

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Hurricane Dean Projected Path

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*courtesy of the Weather Channel

August 15, 2007

Tropical Storm Erin Headed for Texas

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Tropical Storm Dean and Tropical Storm Erin

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August 14, 2007

Tropical Depression # 5 Forms

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Tropical Storm Dean Path Analysis

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Tropical Storm Dean

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August 13, 2007

Tropical Depression # 4 ATCF

This model is called the ATCF which is the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast system. I get this information through a premium service through Accuweather. It provides tracks for tropical low pressure systems (as named by the National Hurricane Center) from up to 50 computer forecast models at the same time. You'll notice how wide the target is across the entire swath of the Virgin Islands.

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Also, an area of disturbance moving into the Gulf of Mexico is likely to form into a depression tomorrow

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UFB: GFS now shows hurricane hitting NY? Believe it or not...

Can you believe now the GFS shows the hurricane plotted right for the big apple? According to this data, it is true. We have learned the past few days that these models change very quickly and over expansive areas. Still, this is the concern we have been talking about for years. It comes down to the boy who cried wolf. It is not in the best interest of forecasters to notify the public right now when the models change so often. People need to remain sensitive about this kind of information so that in an event that it does happen they don't take it in such a lite manner. Nevertheless, this blog is all about the weather...

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Tropical Depression #4 Forms in Atlantic, Hurricane Flossie Aims at Hawaii

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Tropical Depression number four forms in the Atlantic. At 11 AM EST, the center of the storm was located 530 miles of the Cape Verde islands. The depression is moving at 21 MPH. The storm which would become DEAN may become a Tropical Storm in the next 24 hours. We have been following this the past few days as the models have been showing a lot of fluctuation on where the storm will go. It's way too early to call, nevertheless interests in the Caribbean should pay close attention to the latest updates of this developing storm. That means you Mike Sbabo. Max sustained winds are at 35 MPH. The pressure is falling at 1005 MB. Hurricane Flossie Hawaii.jpg You can view the NOAA graphic on the right navigation for location. GFS model this morning showed the storm moving into the Gulf of Mexico later next week.

In other news, Hurricane Flossie is moving closer towards Hawaii. The storm, a Category 4 at nearly 140 mph, is on path that will bring it close to the Big Island of Hawaii during the first half of the week. Hopefully the cool waters surrounding Hawaii will weaken the storm some.




August 12, 2007

Sunny Skies and Another Great Beach Day

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GFS Model: Florida possible Target for Dean, when it forms..

The GFS has been spitting out data saying the next named storm (DEAN) would ride up the East Coast, then changed to New Orleans and now the East coast of Florida by August 20th-- The models will change again, I am sure..

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Beach Weekend - Brilliant Weather

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August 11, 2007

Perseids Meteor Shower ( View to the NE SKY)

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Fire Island Fishing: Saturday Morning Bluefish

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August 10, 2007

GFS Long Range: Hurricane to Form, Target Gulf Coast

Still way to far in advance, however, the GFS Model ( which shows the development of low pressure systems 15 days in advance) is showing the area around New Orleans to be struck by a Major Hurricane.

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August 09, 2007

Ready New York : Be Prepared for a Hurricane

Hurricane READY New York.jpg Ready New York was set up by the OEM ( Office of Emergency Management). It's a program that was put in place to educate New Yorkers on how to prepare for a hurricane. It's important that we all understand what to do in such an event. They also have a guide you can download and an email alert you can sign up for.

Brooklyn Tornado Confirmed

The National Weather Service has confirmed that an EF-2 tornado touched down in Bay Ridge this morning.

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Photos by Jay Goreman, Brooklyn New York

August 08, 2007

NYC Storm Causes MASSIVE City Delays

Radar New York City August 8th 2007.jpg Today, Severe weather caused many New Yorkers to be late to work. Not to mention flooded apartments! The subways also had flooding issues with 34th st and 42nd street stations shut down. Apparently in Brooklyn, there is chatter of a tornado? We will need to confirm that but I am sure it was just very heavy winds. Power outages were reported across many areas as well. The National weather service did issue a Tornado warning however for SE NYC just before 6:30.

Update: confirmed F2 Tornado ( 1st ever in history) I was surprised..




August 06, 2007

Anyone interested in Tuna Fishing Sept 19th?

tunafishing.jpg In the summer, Six of the world's 13 Tuna species chill out just off the jersey and long island shores. Weather plays a very important role in the migration of Tuna. Tuna are pelagic; which means they live up in the water column as opposed to on the ocean floor. These fish are migratory. Tunas frequent temperate and tropical oceans, where the surface water temperature exceeds 64 degrees. This year with above normal ocean temperatures, we could be looking at a prolonged tuna season well into late fall.


It takes more than a good captain to find the Tuna. You also need to be somewhat of a scientist -- you have to really look at the data. By looking at real-time satellite reports you can actually guess where the fish are-- and be right, without being there. Thermal satellite charts can help you find major temperature breaks and eddies; finding the breaks in temperatures will usually indicate where the Tuna are feeding. Warm-water eddies are circulating masses that have broken away from the main current of the Gulf Stream. Eddies spin in a clockwise direction as they continue flowing to the north.


According to Dr. Mitch Roffer of Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service in Miami, a company that provides analysis of ocean temperature images, "A large eddy can easily be 120 miles in diameter, with a typical depth of 3,000 feet. They're somewhat circular in shape and contain Gulf Stream water."
Check out these photos from the trip a few summers ago tuna fishing trip to the Toms canyon, just about 85 miles out on the canyon ledge. It was a great trip with a mix of Yellowfin Tuna, Swordfish and Longfin Tuna. This year's trip will be September 19th-20th. This was Brian and I a few years ago with our first longfin, and this was a picture of Mike and me with a long fin as well

Past Deep Sea shots. Sharks, Tuna, Swordfish

If you are interested in joining and in the NYC area, send an email to jeff@acronym.com for more information.

Record Cold Spell for California

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August 05, 2007

Tropics Remain Quiet

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Fire Island Weather, Picture Perfect

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Sunday Morning Fishing

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Fire Island Sunrise

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August 04, 2007

Evening Catch, Skate, Fire Island

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New York City Thunderstoms - Friday, August 3rd

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photo by my co-worker Adam Bezinski, LIC, NY

Sunrise Over Atlantic - Fishing Day, 12 Bluefish

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Fire Island Friday

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August 02, 2007

Robert Moses Bridge - Fire Island

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August 01, 2007

Typhoon Usagi- Latest Coverage

Typhoon Usagi.jpgOn August 1 at 1200 Zulu Time (9:00 p.m. Japan Local Time), Usagi was located near 27.5 north and 134.8 east or approximately 385 miles east-northeast of Naha, Okinawa, Japan.

Usagi was moving northwest at 14 knots (16 mph). Maximum sustained winds were 115 knots (132 mph) with gusts to 140 knots (161 mph). It is expected to continue tracking northwest and make landfall over Kyushu mid-day on August 2.

This image from TRMM was taken at 10:35 Universal Time on July 27, about 24 hours before the system became a tropical depression. Rain rates in the center of the swath are from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR), while those in the outer portion are from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI).

The rain rates are overlaid on infrared (IR) data from the TRMM Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS). At this stage, the system appears as a relatively small cluster of storms. The circulation is very weak with no evidence of banding (curvature) in the rain field. Source: NASA



Jeff's Garden, Finally enough for a big Salad!

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