New York Weather News - Jeff's Weather Blog

Happy New Year to everyone. I am up in Montreal for the weekend, so there won't be any weather updates except this one. It sure is winter up here with several inches of snow falling and very cold temps! Brrr. As for New York, it's an unreal forecast for the next week! The very unnatural winter season continues. I think people are really starting to wonder what snow looks like. From Boston to NYC to DC there has been almost no snow at all. The continuing dominance of the Pacific jet stream assures that most of the nation won't experience any of the rigors of winter this week, either. Get out there and enjoy it if you like warm temps...

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I snapped these at various altitudes and I was really impressed by the depth and colors of the clouds. Aside from the many attempts to get off the ground, the sky was so beautiful to look at, the delays just didn't matter to me. sort of.. ..

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It was brought to my attention this morning by Mike Walker that the Daily News had photographed a Bald Eagle in New York City. The picture to the left, was taken by Lincoln Karim (AP). The photo captures a a Bald Eagle with a striped bass dangling from its talons over Central Park. It was believed that the bass was taken from the Hudson River. Hawks, Bald Eagles, Falcons, Manatees and Dolphins in New York. What will we see next? As far as the bald eagle is concerned-- It was first adopted as the symbol of the United States because of its independence and strength. The bald eagle is one of the largest birds of prey (raptors) found in North America, bald eagles stand about 30 inches high, sport a wingspan of 72-84 inches and weigh between 8 and 14 pound. The word bald in the eagle's name comes from a word in Old English that means white headed.

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This morning we had a some folks slide by our offices. Empire State Building contractors were doing some exterior work. My co-worker Adam Bezinski managed to snap a few of these great shots below while Tami Dalley also fed a few of them with Doritos and Coca Cola, a great aussie breakfast to kick start the day.

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According to the New York Times and the picture above, a lone cherry tree in the Brooklyn Botanical gardens displays its flowers in an early spring bloom. The weather this December has been exceptionally warm with the average temperature almost five degrees above normal, according to the National Weather Service. Perhaps this is a tell tale sign of winter, or not?

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 11:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Well, it looks like the storm we were talking about over New Years will not hold in place. The GFS model is showing much warmer air coming in on Friday which will almost make it impossible for snow. There may still be a chance with a change over from Rain to Snow on Saturday. Looks like we will have to wait a little longer for some winter weather... JLR.

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I was taking a look at the GFS models this morning and noticed a few interesting things in the forecast ahead. For those of you who do not know what the GFS is, here is a lesson today. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is global numerical weather prediction model run by NOAA ( National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). This model is run four times a day and produces forecasts up 16 days in advance, but with decreasing spatial and temporal resolution over time. Most of the time the models are off in some capacity, but usually give good signs of what is to come based on temperature and precipitation. The model is run in two parts: the first part has a higher resolution and goes out to 180 hours in the future, the second part runs from 180 to 384 hours.

The latest model indicated a storm forming from the south with enough cold air to give some snow to the area. From what the models are producing, it looks looks like the storm could start off as a mix and then change over to all snow. This would be the first significant event for the tri state area. Let's come back to this is 10 days and see if the models prove right.

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This shot was take from friend and weather watcher Andy Towle of Towleroad.com while he was home visiting family for the holidays. Nice shot Andy

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Tropical Cyclone Bondo, a dangerous storm remains a threat to land bordering the western Indian Ocean from Madagascar and the Comoros Islands to the southeast coast of Africa. On December 20, 2006, the Seychelles islands were on alert for the very intense tropical cyclone Bondo which was predicted to strike the islands. Cyclone Bondo was a Category 4 strength storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with sustained winds as high as 222 kilometers per hour (138 miles per hour), according to the Reuters news service. This photo image to the left was acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite on December 20, 2006. The island of Madagascar appears to the southwest of the storm (lower left corner) where the outer rain bands from the storm were coming ashore. Bondo had well-defined spiral arms of rainclouds and thunderstorms at the time of this image, and a strong and clear cloud-filled (or “closed”) eye at its center.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 12:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I figured I would repost this from last year as our friendly hawk friend made a return visit today. Last February when the folks from our network provider were erecting a wireless receptor out our window, we had a visitor show up. The technician was installing a large device pointing west to the Citicorp building in LIC. He has been working on this device for about 4 hours with the windows open- Suddenly around 5 pm a large hawk flew by and turned around aiming right at the window. It swooped down and then quickly pulled up. This happened three times as if the hawk was attacking. The hawk came about 2 feet from us and was really a beautiful sight. Quite something. The one day I didn't have my camera handy. I was amazed at how aggressive it was. Here is the shot of the hawk today, about 9 months later, along with the stuffed dingo we put out as bait!The city reminds a falcon of its natural habitat. Falcons historically have lived on high cliffs over spacious areas ideal for hunting. A falcon will sit extremely still and watch its prey until it flies into an open area such as those over a river or the tree lines in a park. The falcon will dive down onto its prey at very high speeds. A City bridge or skyscraper provides a great deal of open air space and a unique pech for hunting which is why I think we have so many of them flying around up here.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 04:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

El Niño can be seen in measurements of the sea surface temperature, such as those shown above, which were made from the TAO Array of moored buoys. As you view this animation, you will see the warm water spreading from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 10:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

A very stormy weather pattern will persist right into Christmas week. The blizzard now blocking roads and stranding travelers in western Nebraska and eastern Colorado will also shove a substantial amount of rain across the the Eastern states. Once all that goes away, another storm will come out of the woodwork, forming in the western Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. This next storm has all the earmarks of becoming a classic Nor'easter early next week. It will be primarily a big rain producer, but a band of significant snow is possible from Arkansas to upstate New York and northern New England. A greater quantity of cold air would have allowed this to become a big winter storm, but that won't be the case.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 09:56 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

On Friday, the big blizzard will be over with only minor remnants moving across the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes. However, there will be a broad expanse of wet weather from the eastern Great Lakes southward to the Gulf Coast. More snow will fall through the central Rockies with several inches likely in the mountains. The Pacific Northwest will have a temporary break from stormy weather.

Below is the forecast for Saturday showing wet weather persisting along the entire length of the Eastern Seaboard. Watch for rain breaking out in Texas, and there could be some snow in West Texas and eastern New Mexico. The Pacific Northwest will be hit by another storm of wind and rain.

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* Brownsville, Tex.: 84° - tied record set in 1946
* Greenwood, Miss.: 76° - broke record of 74° set in 1984
* Raleigh-Durham, N.C.: 71° - broke record of 70° set in 2001
* Springfield, Mo.: 68° - tied record set in 1976
* Mount Pocono, Pa.: 56° - broke record of 49° set in 1997
* Grand Rapids, Mich.: 54° - broke record of 49° set in 1939

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 12:58 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I'ts no surprise that other parts of the world are also seeing warm temperatures. It's almost officially winter and the Alps have been Balmy. At the bottom of the Hahnenkamm, the famously treacherous downhill course in this Austrian ski resort, the slope peters out into a

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which sponsored the study, stopped short of predicting ruin for Europe’s ski industry. But Bruno Abegg, a researcher at the University of Zurich who was involved in it, said low-lying resorts faced an insuperable problem. “Let’s put it this way,” he said. “I wouldn’t invest in Kitzbühel.” People here have heard baleful predictions for years. Because Kitzbühel sits in a low Tyrolean valley, at an altitude of only 2,624 feet, it is viewed as particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming. (Vail, by contrast, sits at 8,210 feet in the Colorado Rockies). Among the hoteliers, bartenders and others who depend on the ski trade, the long wait for winter has summoned a stoicism that comes from long experience with the vagaries of Mother Nature. A few guests have canceled bookings for Christmas week, according to the local tourism office. But most are holding on to see if the weather changes; snow is forecast for Sunday. If it does not snow by New Year’s Day, however, people here say the trickle of cancellations could turn into a flood

Snowmaking, of course, is still hostage to the weather. Even with the machines running full tilt, Kitzbühel will be able to open only 6 or 7 of its 54 lifts this weekend. And snowmaking is extremely expensive, prompting a debate in town about who should pay the bill. Climate change need not end in Kitzbühel’s extinction, said Georg Hechenberger, a director of the company that runs the resort’s cable cars and lifts. One theory, he noted, is that rising temperatures will disrupt the Gulf Stream, plunging northern Europe into a period of chillier weather.“In that scenario,” he said, “low-lying ski resorts are in good shape. You’re not going to feel comfortable at high altitudes.”

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 11:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Monday will be a sign of changes. Clouds will be on the increase and a few showers will break out Monday across the interior Northeast. Much colder air coming down from Hudson Bay, Canada, will begin to spread into southeastern Canada during the day, then into upstate New York and northern New England Monday night. The Middle Atlantic states will see one more day of near-record warmth Monday, before a turn to breezy and much lower temperatures Tuesday.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 09:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Paula and I went to the Knicks game last night before venturing to a few holiday parties and Pauls Birthday. Happy Birthday Paul. The Knicks were getting crushed but did put an aggressive attempt to try and catch up. It was a fun game, but we decided to leave after there was a 20 point deficit. Plus, we are not huge Knicks fans. We left before the fight broke . The video includes George Karl with some kind of desire to run up the score, Mardy Collins with a desire to club someone because he's frustrated that the Knicks aren't very good at basketball, and Carmelo Anthony with a desire to punch Mardy Collins, and then avoid all physical contact afterwards.

All ten players who were on the floor at the time were suspended. Not all of them deserved to be, but there was about a minute to play, Dick Bavetta couldn't possibly sort out who did what, so he just chucked them all.

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A Naples sunset just before an evening storm
Photo by Cindy Ebinger

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Is it winter or Spring?Instead of a drastic drop in temperatures following a cold front, Many people across the Eastern Seaboard today will enjoy mild afternoon temperatures, with some locales nearing record highs. There was quite a bit of dense morning fog but sunshine has quickly burned that off. Temperatures will warm into the 60s and 70s over the Southeast with residents across the Northeast enjoying highs in the 40s and 50s.

A brief shot of cooler air will arrive over the Northeast on Saturday, but the entire Eastern Seaboard will bask under unseasonable warmth on Sunday.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 12:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

According to Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach, the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be more active than Normal. The team is calling for 14 named storms, 7 of which are hurricanes, 3 intense. The forecast calls for an above normal chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is normal) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average).

It is predicted that the moderate El Niño event will dissipate by the time the active part of the 2007 hurricane season rolls around.

According to Jeff Masters at Wunderground, "The forecasters examined the observed atmospheric conditions and ocean temperatures in October-November 2006, and came up with a list of four past years that had a similar combination of a moderate El Niño event, warmer than average tropical Atlantic SSTs, and a weaker-than-normal Azores-Bermuda High. We can expect 2007 to be similar to the average of these four analogue years, they say. The four years were 2003 (16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes), 1966 (11, 7, and 3 of the same), 1958 (10, 7 and 5), and 1952 (7, 6 and 3). Hurricane Isabel of 2003 (Category 2) was the strongest hurricane to hit the U.S. in these four analogue years, and Category 4 Hurricane Inez of 1966 caused the most death and destruction, killing over 1000 people in its rampage through the Caribbean"

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This random guy passed out on the couch at one of the cocktail parties for Pulse

Then Mike took a picture of me with him.. We thought it was funny

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 09:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Some people think I'm crazy for doing this, but I think it's worth every penny. I took US Helicopter from downtown NYC to JFK yesterday. The entire trip was just about 8 minutes. Why spend it stuck in airport traffic and a car that makes you sick. US Helicopter has regularly scheduled flights just about every few hours. It was a fun experience and the fastest way through security. You check your bags and clear through security at the heliport, so you bypass all of that nonsense at the airport. At most times, there are only a handful of people, but when I was there, I was the only one on the flight. . What I thought was so fascinating is when you arrive at the airport, US Helicopter takes you straight to your gate when departing on American Airlines. It felt very James Bondish as I entered the airport through the back security gates. They opened the door to the terminal and said, "welcome to JFK Mr. Ragovin". I walked 10 ft to the gate where my flight was departing. It was truly the best way to start my vacation. You can check out more information at FLYUSH.COM and I would highly recommend.

http://flyush.com

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This time last year, December started with unusually cold conditions across the entire nation, in fact we already had some significant snowfall. The entire country was colder than normal, but ended with record heat, wildfires in the southern Plains and strong storms in the Far West. This year, the month started off unseasonably warm with record temperatures. As a matter of fact, November was the warmest month on record! The pacific Northwest has had record amounts of flooding which eliminated short-term dryness concerns, as precipitation amounts reached 1 to 2 feet in western Washington and the adjacent coast of Oregon.

This winter, the National Weather center is calling for a drier pattern, however we could be looking at the possibility of some big coastal storms. Across the southern tier of nation, the ongoing El Niño should contribute to improving drought conditions in the Southwest, the southern Plains, and the Southeast, although many locations will see persisting or worsening drought conditions before relief arrives later in the outlook period.

The middle part of the month, at least in the Northeast looks to be erratic. A very strong mass of Arctic air will swing through the region, and reach locations as far south as the gulf states. Later on next week, a warm up will occur sending temperatures back into the 50's. You'll notice the chart on the left is actual lows and highs for the next 2 weeks.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 01:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Rafael De Arce will be guest blogging this week from Wednesday - Sunday, bringing you the latest weather information. I won't be around as I am heading to Miami for some fun, sun and of course some culture at Art Basel, The International Art Show. I'm meeting up with some friends and hope to see some really great art. The weather looks good with sun and clouds and the chance of a shower here and there. I certainly won't mind the warm up! It was a cold weekend. The international art show in Miami Beach is the American sister event of Art Basel in Switzerland, the most important annual art show worldwide for the past 37 years. Art Basel Miami Beach is a new type of cultural event, combining an international art show with an exciting program of special exhibitions, parties and crossover events including music, film, architecture and design. Exhibition sites are located in the city's beautiful Art Deco District, within walking distance of the beach and most hotels and restaurants.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 11:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

In Hanoi, Vietnam, at least 50 people died after Typhoon Durian slammed into Vietnam's southern coast. The National Weather Center said the storm was only packing winds of 73 MPH when it hit the southern provinces of Ben Tre and Tra Vinh on Tuesday morning. While the storm was not devastating, it did damage over 1,000 homes and sank more than 800 fishing boats. The storm is expected to continue to weaken as it moves into the Gulf of Thailand Wednesday. The storm killed over 1,000 people in the Phillipines.

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Yes, It's December alright and with holidays right around the corner, one ought to think of cold, snow and wind. This week will be chilly, but some moderation is in the forecast.

We will look for another major pattern change next week. Forecast models show the jet stream splitting into two branches. The northern branch will retreat northward into eastern Canada, which will send the arctic air out and open the door to milder air across the eastern two-thirds of the nation. The southern branch of the jet stream will become increasingly moist, leading to a couple of storms tracking into the southern United States. How mild you may ask? Temps are looking at rebounding near 60 by the 18th. Don't get ready for winter just yet!

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 04:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

On Friday, I left the gym around 8 pm and temps were just around or near 70 degrees-- was it really December 1st? It felt more like late June. Then, the front came through with a powerful surge of energy, lightning and wind gusts over 50 mph , torrential rains and then it was over. The humidity and warmth quickly vanished. Fresh cold air has swept away the record-setting warmth of Friday. Now, weather watchers are turning sights southwards to the southern Atlantic Seaboard for clues to upcoming weather. An area of low pressure will take shape Sunday, then will sweep northeastward while gaining strength overnight and Monday. By the time this growing weather system reaches the area of Newfoundland, Canada--by early Tuesday--it is bound to be quite a winter storm. Beforehand, though, what will happen in the Northeast? It is too early to say with certainty, although there is potential for significant snowfall.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 09:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Great Lakes light house
South Haven Michigan, photo byThom Peters

Rain Falling over Moab, Utah Photo by Kallie Kantos

Lenticular Clouds form over Fort Collins Colorodo. Photo by William Bond

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 09:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Severe storms will race through the mid-Atlantic and New England today ahead of a strong cold front. While most of these storms will not contain thunder and lightning, damaging winds will accompany these storms with wind gusts past 50 mph. A very strong flow of air just above the earth's surface will be pulled downward by these storms, bringing damaging wind gusts that could break branches from trees or even topple weak trees, blow around lose outdoor objects and even break powerlines from utility poles. Drenching downpours will also accompany these storms bringing a quick bout of heavy rain.

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Nothing weather releated at all, but Stephen sent this to me and it was pretty funny

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Temperatures will drop from the 60s straight back in to the 40's by 10 pm. If you happen to be out, make sure to dress properly. Strong gusty winds and lightning may also be present once the front rolls through.

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