Eastern Heat This Weekend
Get ready for another wave of 90+ days.. The heat is on and looks like it will persist into late next week.
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July 26, 2006
July 24, 2006
US Global Change Research Program
It seems that the ocean temperatures have been unseasonably warm for late July. This past weekend, the water was literally a bath tub. According to the chart from Rutgers on the left, the great south bay has already warmed to around 80 and south facing shores are in the mid 70's. Climate change and ocean temperature change affect coastal fishing. According to the US Global Change Research Program, water temperature, fishing methods, and combined effects, including changes in predator-prey relationships influence the abundance of fish. It can be difficult to separate which circumstances create which results. However, some observations indicate trends in the impacts of environmental conditions on coastal fisheries.
During the 1970s and 1980s, populations in many of the Northeast's commercially important fisheries, such as cod, haddock, and yellowtail flounder plummeted. Although over-fishing is often cited as the major cause of these population declines, an additional explanation is that ocean warming played a role in altering the distribution and reproductive success of coastal species. Interactions between temperature and salinity, which can be altered with changes in temperature and precipitation, determine the range that a species can tolerate and successfully inhabit.
Changes in species composition already have occurred all along the North Atlantic coast. One example will be used to illustrate the complexity of this issue. Over a 30-year observation period from 1959 to 1989, the community composition shifted in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, from a resident cold-water, winter flounder dominant community to a migratory, warmer-water marine community. Warmer water temperatures appear to have set off a chain of circumstances that began with the loss of the winter flounder population and resulted in increased populations of invertebrates and migrant fishes. 
During this period, the winter flounder population crashed on two occasions. Both times occurred during a multi-year warming trend during the winter-spring spawning period. A recovery of the winter flounder populations coincided with two successive cold winters. Moreover, large invertebrates -- such as crabs, squid, lobster (only in the Bay), and mantis shrimp -- moved into the region earlier in the season and in greater numbers. By the third decade of observation, the butterfish, originally a summer migrant species, had increased so much that it ranked fourth in abundance in the Narragansett Bay area.
Scientists have suggested that warm temperatures in late winter-early spring allow shrimp, one of the invertebrates increasing in number, to feed earlier in the year than usual. They invade the flounder's cold-water estuarine refuge and feed on its larvae at rates sufficient to remove a significant number. This same effect has been observed in the North Sea between plaice and a common shrimp.
Some Sun and Fishing
The weekend actually turned out to be okay. We had a bunch of wild storms Friday afternoon that rolled through the area. In the image below, lightning struck a good portion of the tree-- Pretty cool. I had a chance to use the seine net with my buddies Drew and Scott. We caught lots of snappers and blue claws. Later on, Todd and I went for Stripers but none were around...
July 21, 2006
Luxor Las Vegas hit by Lightning
The daily mail in the UK posted this picture of The Luxor struck by lightning
Rare Mammatus Clouds over New York City
I Took these shots from my office in the Empire State Building this morning just ahead of a very heavy super cell.
I posted about this awhile back, Toby forwarded me some photos he found online. I've seen these only a few times but not often, and today I got lucky! Jorn Oslen took these amazing shots. These are Mammatus clouds and are almost extraterrestrial looking in nature. Mammatus (also known as mamma or mammatocumulus) is a meteorological term applied to a cellular pattern of pouches hanging underneath the base of a cloud. These pouches are often ragged, but may appear smooth. Their color is normally a bluish gray, the same as that of the host cloud, but direct illumination from the setting sun and other clouds may cause a gold or reddish cast as in this shot by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. . Mammatus can persist anywhere from minutes to hours, diffusing and disappearing over time.
Mammatus has often been linked with the occurrence of tornadoes and thunderstorms.
Heavy Storms Rolling through around 9:30 AM - New York Metro Area
July 20, 2006
Tropical Storm Beryl
I'm in Kentucky today, but wanted to post the latest sat. image of Beryl. Quite impressive for such a late and north atlantic forming storm! watch out cape cod!
July 19, 2006
Tropical Storm Watch posted for Cape Cod
Tropical Storm Beryl Update
Tropical storm Beryl has strengthened a bit, but still a very weak storm. It will most likely become a little more organized in the next 24 hours. Even though the storm is far North, it is sitting right over the gulf stream waters. Those sea surface temperatures are around 80 degrees which is the thershold for tropical development. In the next few days it is possible that the storm could have significant impact on the weather across eastern Long Island and southeastern New England Thursday night and Friday morning. I hope this does'nt interfere with my weekend plans at the beach!
July 18, 2006
Tropical Storm Beryl Forms off North Carolina
Tropical Depression Two formed off the North Carolina coast Tuesday morning. At of 11 AM EDT # 2 was located near 32.5 North, 73.4 West or about 220 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure was 1011 millibars or 29.85 inches. Movement was to the north near 5 mph. A Tropical Storm Watch has been posted for the North Carolina Coast from north of Cape Lookout to the Currituck Beach Lighthouse.
Within seventy hours, the system is expected to continue strengthening as a tropical storm and pass about 25 miles off the coast of the Outer Banks as it is driven around a ridge of high pressure over the north Atlantic. Eventually a recurve off to the Northeast is expected
Possible Tropical Development
There is an area of interest that we are keeping our eyes on. Just off the southeast coast, there has been a group of rapdily developing thunderstorms. With winds diminishing over the region, it may have a chance to develop into tropical charactaristics. According to Jeff Masters at wunderground.com, he had indictated that there is a clear surface circulation developing near 32N 74W, about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It has certainly been a quiet season-- mainly due to strong winds over the Atlantic. inhibiting waves from developing into tropical storms.
July 17, 2006
Tsunami hits Pangandaran Beach, West Java, Indonesia
A powerful earthquake sent a 6 foot high Tsunami to the resorts along Indonesia’s Java Island. According to the AP, at least 100 people are dead and many hotels, restaurants and homes have had extensive damage. “Indonesia was the country that was hit worst by the 2004 tsunami and it has installed a warning system across much of Sumatra island, but not on Java, which just seven weeks ago was hit by a powerful quake that killed thousands. Monday's tsunami followed a quake that struck beneath the Indian Ocean 150 miles southwest of Java's western coast at 3:24 p.m. local time, causing tall buildings to sway as far off as the capital Jakarta. The earthquake had a preliminary magnitude of 7.2, the U.S. Geological Survey said. It was followed by a 6.1-magnitude aftershock two hours later.
July 16, 2006
Hot Weather- Weekend Fishing- Fire Island
It was a great weekend for the beach and a great weekend for fishing. The water has already warmed into the mid 70s in the creeks and harbors of Fire Island and the ocean temps are hovering around 72 degrees. The bluefish have shown up everywhere. Since there are no bait stores - I had to catch my own bait. It was fun, albeit a little frustrating at times. Schoolies of bait fish were everywhere, but without a sciene net, I had to use a standard pool net- not easy when it is 15 feet long! I managed to capture a few nevertheless. I caught a couple snappers with the baitfish and eventually caught a nice bluefish with the snappers. We took the dingy off the beach to look for some stripers as we caught an Eel in Dave's spearing trap --- Consequently, there were not around.
In other fishing news around Fire Island, Charlie Makin drilled a 13.10-pound fluke on the Capt. Gillen out of Captree. The fish was taken in the inlet, a good sign that ocean fish may be heading into the bay. Augie's B&T in Babylon reported striped bass are taking live bunker baits, and weakfish are hitting the smaller bunker. The Bay Shore Mako Tournament was postponed a few weeks ago, but tomorrow's rescheduled date looks like it will be perfect in terms of weather and sharks.
Pretty soon it will be time for the Tuna! 
July 13, 2006
Ominous Lightning - Carly Mankus
I don't know how she does it, but Carly captures some of the most amazing shots I have ever seen. The photo below is another amazing shot in New Hampshire.
July 11, 2006
Spectacular Sunsets In New York City July 13th
By way of Andy at Towleroad July 13th should be a spectacular sunset. According to Towleroad and NPR, this week, the sun will be setting at latitude that puts it in line with the canyons of NYC's streets. This happens only two times a year. Once in May and Once in July. You'll have to wait till next spring if you miss this. If you happen to take a shot- send to Jeffsweather and we will post it. Here is one Andy shot the other night
July 10, 2006
Mayflies Caught on Radar
Mayflies: Caught on Radar
One of the various types of radars meteorologists use to track precipitation is called NEXRAD. Nexrad is a very sensitive radar. It can even pick up certain types of natural phenomena, including birds and bugs. National Weather Service office in LaCrosse, Wisconsin says: A large mayfly hatch occurred along the Mississippi River Friday evening, June 30th. The hatch began just after sundown, around 9 PM, and continued through the early morning hours. Those with plans outdoors Friday evening on and along the Mississippi River certainly noticed the huge swarm of mayflies, and their attraction to light. Some roads across the Mississippi River in and around LaCrosse were covered with bugs, piling into "drifts" on bridges over the Mississippi River and its tributaries. Local businesses with high intensity lighting soon found large piles of dead mayflies accumulating under the lights by midnight. The radar loop is from the National Weather Service Mississippi River channel... occurring simultaneously the entire length of the channel. The ambient wind flow was from the south on Friday evening, with the entire swarm of mayflies drifting north with time. The radar loop starts just before 9 PM CDT and ends around 1030 PM CDT.
July 09, 2006
Photo of the Day- Tropical Storm Alberto Feeder Band
This was taken off of Islamorada, Florida. A feeder band from Tropical Storm Alberto brings a menacing sky over the Atlantic Ocean off the Florida Keys. The photo was taken by Tonya Banks on 6/10/2006
Gone Fishing... In the East River
Can you believe that people actually catch fish in the East River? It is true, right off Gracie Mansion at around 90th Street, there is an area of the river in which Stripped Bass, Bluefish, Fluke and Weak fish congregate. My friend Kurt and I gave it at shot. I have been reading (yes reading) about the great numbers of fish in the city. It seems strange to catch big game fish off of Manhattan. I did some research and found that even though many of these fish are migratory, It would not be safe to consume them as they may contain high levels of PCB. Nevertheless, we ventured uptown and tried to fish the hot spots. It is still early in the season, and we did not seem to get any action.
This ariel view is where the spots are. We will probably try again in a few weeks.
Other New York City shoreline areas include the lighthouse at the north end of Roosevelt Island, Little Neck Bay in Queens, and Orchard Beach in the Bronx. Also, one can access a variety of Staten Island hot spots, including South Beach, Midland Beach, Great Kills Park & Beach, Wolf's Pond Park & Beach, and Lemon Creek Pier.
July 08, 2006
Photo of the Day- Lightning over Trenton, NJ
This is a view of the Calhoun Street Bridge from the Pennsylvania side of the delaware river across the river from Trenton, NJ - just south of Yardley PA. The picture shows the flooded delaware river rising high under the bridge with a lightning bolt in the sky above. This picture was taken at about 9:40pm on June 29th. The photo was taken by Paul Sebelnik.
July 07, 2006
New Hampshire Thunderstorm - Photo of the Day
This photo was captured on the north shore of a lake in East Wakenfield, NH. The image was taken by
Carly Mankus on 6/20/2006
July 06, 2006
Bryan Norcross: Hurricane Almanac 2006: The Essential Guide to Storms Past, Present and Future
Last week I had dinner with CBS Miami’s Bryan Norcross and was fortunate to get a sneak peak at his new book which will be hitting the shelves July 11th. The book is called Hurricane Almanac 2006: The Essential Guide to Storms Past, Present and Future. The book covers everything from hurricane history, preparation before during and after the storm, and science of the amazing storms. I’ve had a good read through the book already. I have found that some of the information Bryan provides is fascinating. Norcross covers the history of the great Hurricanes dating all the way back to the 19th century. I had always thought the Long Island Express ’38 was one of the greatest and closest storms to hit the New York City area ( Aside from Gloria in 85) After reading through, I was wrong. In 1893, their was a direct hit on the big apple. The storm hit on August 19th, 1893. While it was only a category I storm, yet another storm was brewing in Puerto Rico and headed on a very similar path. Just days after, Coney Island, Brooklyn was a direct hit. Thirty-foot waves destroyed buildings and pushed boats a half a mile inland. Two hurricanes hit New York in one week. According to Norcross, it has now been 123 years since NYC has had a direct hit like that. What I also found fascinating was that in 1893 there was a resort called Hog Island, an Island just off of the Rockaway’s. I know the Rockaway’s pretty well as growing up, my family had a cabana on Atlantic Beach. I never knew such a resort existed. After the hurricane of 1893, it disappeared. You’ll find cool historic facts like this in the book. I would highly reccomend this book for everyone. There are many chapters on how to prepare yourself in the event of a storm. Jeffs weather gives it 2 thumbs up! For more information check out Hurricane Alamanac.
Bryan Norcross literally "talked South Florida through" Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and, since that time, his level-headed advice, professional presence and measured delivery have earned him the trust of South Florida television viewers.
As Director of Meteorology for WFOR, CBS4, in Miami, Bryan provides weather forecasts on the 5 and 6 PM CBS4 newscasts, serves as Executive Producer for the station's hurricane specials, is intimately involved in station hurricane planning, and leads CBS4's round-the-clock coverage whenever a storm threatens. He also works closely with the CBS4 weather team to ensure the station's state-of-the-art forecasting and meteorological capabilities.
-Jeff Ragovin
July 05, 2006
Lightning Storm over Fire Island
This weekend we had a number of powerfull storms roll through Fire Island. On Sunday, very dramatic lightning action was seen from the beach. This shot was captured by my friend Sebastian White. Amazing !
Today, heavy thunderstorms and torrental flash flooding rain will rumble through the area. A cold front moving eastbound is the main culprit. The plus of all this bad weather is that the humidity will be forced out to sea with cooler drier conditions setting up.
