New York Weather News - Jeff's Weather Blog

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In Myanmar (Burma), Tropical Cyclone Nargis, a super strong category 4 hurricane caused major destruction and death. Nargis made landfall in the Irrawaddy River Delta region, and then lost some strength before striking the nation's largest city, Yangon. The storm is being blamed as the deadliest natural disaster in Myanmar's recorded history with over 25,000 deaths, and the worst in the world since the 2004 tsunami.

It is the second major cyclone in just six months to make landfall after forming in the Bay of Bengal. Tropical Cyclone Sidr killed 3,300 and devastated the rice crop in Bangladesh in November.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 10:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Despite recent below normal weather conditions, the summer outlook for 2008 looks to be on the warmer side. As I’ve said in the past, Jeff’s Weather looks at climateological data and trends based on the Climate Prediction Centers models and charts. I can only take a hunch on the data to and make assumptions. That being said, the outlook for late May, June and July shows increased above normal temperatures for New York and New England. It also shows below normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 10:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It's that time of the year again when meterologists take their first shot at predictions for the 2008 Hurricane Season. The Colorado State University team calls for a well above aberage hurricane season. ( this is not a suprise) It seems every year we hear the same forecasts. The reason for this quoted from William Gray "Current oceanic and atmospheric trends indicate that we will likely have an active Atlantic basin hurricane season". The forecast calls for 15 named storms in the Atlantic, eight of them to become Hurricanes and 4 to become intense of major hurricanes.

Current conditions across the Atlantic ocean are favorable for an active season as the current sea surface temperature pattern in the Atlantic is typical from past active seasons. The main rise in temps in 2008 is because of a positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

The hurricane forecast team reiterated its probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil:

A 69 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2008 (the long-term average probability is 52 percent).

A 45 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent)

A 44 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30 percent).
The team will issue seasonal updates of its 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane activity forecast on June 3, Aug. 5, Sept. 2 and Oct. 1.

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An analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center shows that the average temperature for March in the US ranked near average for the past 113 years. It was the 63rd warmest March since record-keeping began in the United States in 1895. The average global land temperature last month was the warmest on record and ocean surface temperatures were the 13th warmest. Combining the land and the ocean temperatures, the overall global temperature ranked the second warmest for the month of March. Global temperature averages have been recorded since 1880.

A few highlights:

Snowpack conditions dropped in many parts of the West in March, but in general, heavy snowfall during December-February has left the western snow pack among the healthiest in more than a decade, with most locations near to above average.

In the Southeast, a powerful tornado moved through downtown Atlanta on March 14, causing significant damage to many buildings. This was one of 90 tornado reports from the Southeast in March.

The global land surface temperature was the warmest on record for March, 3.3°F above the 20th century mean of 40.8°F. Temperatures more than 8°F above average covered much of the Asian continent. Two months after the greatest January snow cover extent on record on the Eurasian continent, the unusually warm temperatures led to rapid snow melt, and March snow cover extent on the Eurasian continent was the lowest on record.

The global surface (land and ocean surface) temperature was the second warmest on record for March in the 129-year record, 1.28°F above the 20th century mean of 54.9°F. The warmest March on record (1.33°F above average) occurred in 2002. Credit: NOAA

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 10:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It was a great week for technology and weather! Temps in the 70's and sunny. It was picture perfect. Big news this week as well: Buddy Media, the company I work for and responsible for my lack of weather posts the past 6 months has raised $6.5 million in a second round from Softbank, European Founders Fund, Greycroft Partners, Ron Conway, as well as its previous backers.. Buddy Media previously raised $1.5 million from Howard Lindzon, Peter Thiel, Roger Ehrenberg Mark Pincus and James Altucher, for a total $8 million. With the new funding, we officially launched our own ad network. I'm very pleased at the success so far -- hats off to Michael Lazerow and Kass Lazerow for kicking things into high gear. More great news to come.

In this shot: Michael Lazerow, Howard Lindzon, Jeff Ragovin

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So, I've been growing tomatoes since January in an Aerogarden in my NYC Apartment. It's been fun to watch but hardly worth the wait as it will only produce at most 20 cherry tomatoes. I would imagine the Aerogarden goes through a lot of electricity as well. At the end of the day, it was fun to be able to grow something in the middle of winter!

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Took these shots from my place. Scary! Finally got to move home

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We'll see a break in tri-state area as a weak area of high pressure settles in Thursday. Did anyone catch the big storm Wed night? It was amazing.. Full or partial sunshine will be enough to steer temperatures to highs of 50-55 degrees.

It is best to not expect for this to last, because the next storm is already in the making. A complex winter storm will swing northeast from the Gulf Coast Thursday night and Friday bringing rain back to the area.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 09:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

As we move into the weekend, a blast of bitter cold air will move past the Midwest and the Northeast this weekend. The howling winds accompanying the frigid air will create dangerously cold wind chills. The subzero-feeling air will then spread over the entire Midwest through Saturday night and into the Northeast on Sunday. Temperatures of minus 40° or lower will have a foothold on most of North Dakota and northern Minnesota during this time. West to northwest winds across the Mid-Atlantic and Upstate New York could gust to 45 mph at times. Daytime temperatures Sunday will move down to the 30s from Boston to Washington and in the 20s and teens from northern Maine to western Pennsylvania and West Virginia. For the first time in awhile, lake-effect snow will fall downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure over southeast New Hampshire and Down East Maine could produce a foot of snow. More inclement weather, possibly a wintry mess, is in store for the region by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 07:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

A major nor'easter is beginning to brew in the Atlantic today and will impact northern parts of the mid-Atlantic and New England tonight into Monday. The heaviest snow is expected to fall near the coast of New England starting later tonight.

The coastal area of low pressure will move northward today, causing rain and thunderstorms along the East Coast from Virginia to Florida. Some areas already have received rainfall from this storm system; however, the beneficial rain for the region is localized and mainly along the coast.

The South Regional News story reports that the storm will develop today and will bring more short-lived shower activity to eastern parts of the Carolinas to southeastern Virginia.

The Northeast will have one more day of calm weather before the storm starts to impact the region later tonight into Monday.

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I apologize for the lack of activity the past couple months. As some of you already know, I left Acronym Media, a leader in search marketing solutions to head up business development and partnerships for Buddy Media. It has an been amazing first month with many new client acquisitions and explosive user growth. I've never seen anything like it before. Buddy Media's Acebucks has become the largest loyalty marketing program on Facebook. Acebucks has grown to over 1.2 million users and has been adding 40,000-50,000 users a day. Our current focus is creating sticky, super viral applications that help users get more out of Facebook and other social media. Michael Lazerow, Founder and CEO secured some of the biggest investors in the industry (Howard Lindzon, Peter Thiel, Mark Pincus and James Altucher). Mike's got a killer background-- He was the founder of University Wire (owned now by Columbia Broadcasting System (CBS) and GOLF.com (owned by Time Inc.). I'm really enjoying working with him.

Here is the idea behind Acebucks: Users who install the application get rewarded to do the things that we like them to do. Play games, purchase merchandise, and complete offers. They do all this while being part of a fun growing community. Acebucks are redeemed by the user to buy real ticket items like Ipods, electronics, airline tickets and more. We have also launched Storefront, an ebay-like application where everything is bought and sold for Acebucks. On Friday, November 29th, BBC World news came to the buddy media offices to find a little more about the people behind Acebucks. They were very interested in hearing how our company is now creating a micro-economy in the social media world. In recent news, Buddy Media acquired Crushes on Thursday. Crushes has over 1 million current users and will be tied in with Acebucks. This will increase Buddy Media's user base to over 2 million. A public API is also available to developers who wish to integrate Acebucks with their applications.

I recently spoke at the Web 2.0 Meetup
run by Brett Petersel and Oz Sultan and I had a blast. They did an amazing job at organizing many thought leaders and web strategists in one venue. There were hundreds who attended. I look forward to the next one. Some shots from the event: ( Right : Jeff Ragovin and Brett Petersel)

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Amy Houghton Warren's Photos from Orange county

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So what exactly is going on? It's October 5th and the the temperature today is looking to hit 86. That is 10 degrees warmer than it was July 4th. The warm air mass will be responsible for summer heat across much of the easy coast until Monday. This time of the year we typically see temps in the 50's and 60's by now. It almost feels like there hasn't been much of a Fall. Ample warm air this weekend will set the stage for a beach day. Get out and enjoy it while you can.

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Tags: New York City Thunderstorms, lightning, squall lines, severe weather, heavy rain, New york radar
photo by swerz

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 01:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

As Gabrielle departs, a new tropical wave in the central Atlantic is expected to strengthen into a tropical depression in the next few days. The next storm to develop would be called Humberto. The storm will move into the same warm waters as Dean and Felix did, which both blossomed into category 5 storms. We are also monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the western Gulf of Mexico that could possibly develop into a depression. Yesterday was the peak of the hurricane season. In the midwest, a cold air mass will plummet temps into the 40's with a gusty northwesterly chill.

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photos by Jeff Ragovin

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Tropical Storm Gabrielle made landfall today over the Outer Banks in North Carolina. The system came ashore as a weak storm only causing some gusty winds and rain. The storm strengthened just a bit this morning but still didn't pack a punch. The parched southeast is also in desperate need of rain. All 100 counties are facing drought conditions — 91 in a severe drought or worse. .Gabrielle will make sharp turn to the north and head back out to sea without effecting any other landmass. A tropical storm warning was issued from Hatteras to the Virginia border. The greatest danger with this storm will be the rip currents along the coast. photo: Emerald Isle, North Carolina

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Heat and humidity are expected to build this weekend in the East. Temperatures will soar into the upper 80's by Friday and near 90 on Saturday in most eastern locations. Along with the warm up also comes the threat of a tropical system which would be named Gabrielle. Is it going to happen? Models show weakening but only time will tell. Currently, the center of circulation lacks any tropical features. This is due to excessive wind shear over the past few days. As high pressure starts to settle in on Friday, the winds aloft will subside and allow the low to form into a depression. Current models are still forecasting the tropical system to curve once it hits the Carolinas and move eastbound. Stay tuned for more info. graphics courtesy of Accuweather

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As the week progresses, it's more imminent that Gabrielle will form in the next 36 hours. The models are all starting to pull more evidence that this storm will approach the Carolinas by weekend and up the coast by Monday. The GFDL and the GFS are predicting the system will make a loop in the Atlantic then back seaward to the coast. At this point it is pretty certain that it will develop into a named storm. The low has a clear low-level circulation center and steering currents are very weak, which will give the storm an opportunity to drift and build. As the storm develops more information will come in. Acronyms of the day: GFDL: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFS: Global Forecast System

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 03:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Forecasters are watching an area of low pressure off the South East coast very carefully. The GFDL shows this area of low pressure developing into a tropical storm, which would become Gabrielle. The GFDL is a an advanced 3-dimensional weather forecast model developed specifically for predicting hurricane movement. GFDL stands for Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model. High pressure is starting to build into the Northeast which would keep the disturbance to the south and east over very warm water. We will continue to keep on eye on this into early next week. GFS model is showing similar development. Stay tuned for updates.

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Hurricane Felix produced an impressive eye and major intensification over Sunday night. Hard to believe, but Felix too will go down in the record books as the second fastest 12-hour pressure fall. The pressure dropped 50 millibars between 11 am and 11 pm EST Sunday. Wilma dropped 83 millibars in 2005. The center of circulation 275 miles south of Kingston Jamaica and continues to move westward at 22 mph. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for Honduras and Belize.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 12:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

A major blast of hot air is backing into California which will send temperatures soaring into the 90's and 100's. Today is the seventh day that the heat wave has contributed to blackouts and no AC. All eyes are on energy companies as they run into supply issues over the next week. Temperatures hit 108 in the Hollywood Hills and in the 110's int he desert. Typically we see cool Pacific air dominate much of the coastal communities. However, as high pressure builds over the south west, there won't be any onshore flow. Warming winds from the west will cut off any marine layer that tends to build on the coast. Temperatures are the inland areas of southern California should reach around 100, that includes San Diego. Photo Credit: Nasa

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The outlook for the next week looks beautiful for the East while the West continues swelter with high temps. Temperatures in Los Angeles will remain in the upper 90’s through the weekend while New Yorkers and New Englanders will enjoy comfortable temps in the low 80’s with abundant sunshine. Today, another dry day on tap but a few showers will start to creep in Thursday night and Friday morning. In the Midwest, more storms will flare up across the plains today. Severe weather is possible around lower Michigan and Illinois. This is not good for areas that have already seen surplus amounts of rainfall. Once front clears through, drier weather will filter in. Graphics courtesy of Accuweather

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USA Today: East Coast Tropical Trouble

Reuters: Record Heat in Eastern U.S

USA Today: Massive Storm causes Brooklyn Tornado and NYC Subway Delays

USA Today: Major Changes for Northeast

USA Today: Major Heat Wave in California causes Power Outages

USA Today: Eastern Heatwave

USA Today: Record Eastern Heat

USA Today: Weekend Weather Concerns for Northeast

USA Today: Labor Day Weekend Forecast

USA Today: Stalled Front, Weather Woes

USA Today: Cold for the Northeast

Seattle Spokesman Review: Weather Blogs

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 10:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It looks to be a quiet end of August in the Tropics. Last week we dealt with Hurricane Dean in the Caribbean and Mexico and Tropical Storm Erin in the gulf, yet no storms to look at on the map today. There is a weak tropical wave moving into the southwestern Caribbean but we could see it develop into a depression in a few days. That storm would become Felix.. I took a look at the GFS at 10:30 PM and it showed signs of a developing system in the central Atlantic the second week of September, but we know those models change so often. photo credit: NOAA

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Fires in Greece continue burn with over 80 still blazing in the north of the country and in the south peloponnese Peninsula. More than 60 people have now been killed destroying hundreds of homes. Helicopters have been dousing flames, but have not been very effective. Fires in Greece are common during hot dry summers but not like the past week. The government in Greece has issues a reward of up to one million euros for information on any arsonists. The problem at large is the major winds that continue to fuel the fires.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 10:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

If you are up late or get up early on Tuesday, you'll notice the moon will be passing through the shadow of the Earth. Although we're used to seeing shadows as dark areas, the Earth's shadow will give the moon a reddish, or coppery color. The partial eclipse begins at 3:51 AM Tuesday. Totality starts at 4:52 AM and lasts until 6:22 AM. The eclipse ends at 7:23 AM. By that point the sun will be up, so it might be hard to notice anything different about the moon.

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While the East is starting to warm back up, severe weather in Chicago paralyzed the evening commute. More than 265,000 ConEd customers are without power Thursday night. As the storms hit Chicago, Metra commuters were stranded on trains after power lines toppled. At midway and O'Hare more than 500 flights were canceled. On top of that, the deluge of rain caused the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District to open locks on the North Shore allowing million of gallons of raw and partially treated sewage into Lake Michigan.

The culprit of all this is a stalled out front, which has caused most of the flooding. A number of locations are dealing with 6-day rainfall totals over 12 inches. Another stalled out front will cause thunderstorms to drench the area from Kansas to Lower Michigan Friday. photo credit: Sebastian White

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