New York Weather News - Jeff's Weather Blog

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At 10:00 p.m. Tuesday, Hanna was still a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph. Hanna is located near 20.5 north and 72.4 west. Hanna has been nearly stationary over the past few hours and a slow, erratic motion should continue into tonight. The estimated central pressure of Hanna is 988 mb, or 29.18 inches. s.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the central and southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Meanwhile, the government of the Dominican Republic issued a tropical storm warning for the northern coast from Puerto Plata west to Bahia De Manzanillo. Also, a tropical storm warning is in effect for the northern coast of Haiti from Port Au Prince eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic. Interests in eastern Cuba, the northern Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Hanna.

Hanna is experiencing strong northerly shear, but this shear should diminish into Wednesday, and Hanna could become a hurricane once more later Wednesday or Wednesday night. Tropical storm-force winds will affect the Turks and Caicos Islands, as well as the central and southeastern Bahamas, tonight. Rainfall from Hanna will also affect the central and southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. source accuweather premium

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 11:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The 2008 Hurricane Season is in full swing as the tropics heat up into September. Today, September 1st 2008, Hurricane Gustav made landfall over Terrebonne Parish, southwest of New Orleans. Gustav weakened to a strong Category 2 storm before making landfall. This dangerous storm still has winds near 110 mph and is causing widespread flooding and damage. Gustav currently has a central pressure at 957 MB and is moving to the NW at 15 MPH. In the Caribbean, Hurricane Hanna has sustained winds at 75 mph and could see intensification in the next few days. The current movement is to the west-southwest at 5 mph. Hanna is expected to turn to the northwest Wednesday aiming it directly at the Carolina coastline. The areas on the lookout for Hanna stretch from Florida through North Carolina, which will likely endure rough surf and rip currents initially from Hanna. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Three tropical waves and one tropical storm have now formed. Depression # 9 is now Tropical Storm Ike and is moving to the west at 16 mph.

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photo by Jeff Ragovin, Buddy Media

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Hurricane Bertha continues intensify as a Category 2 hurricane as it moves into the North Atlantic. Bertha poses no threat to the United States . This is mainly because a storm impacting the Upper Midwest, will sweep the hurricane away early next week. Residents and visitors to Bermuda, however, should monitor.

The current forecast calls for Bertha to jog to the north this weekend, then pass roughly 150 miles to the east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday. Bermuda will be impacted by rough surf as soon as today.

7/7
Tropical Storm Bertha continues to spin westward as it moves over warmer tropical water. Tropical Storm Bertha currently has sustained winds at 60 mph and is located about 1055 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. The storm is racing west-northwestward through the central Atlantic at 20 miles per hour and is forecast to become a hurricane late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. A gradual slowing of Bertha's forward speed and a turn to a more NW track is expected over the next couple of days. It's still too early but models are indicating that Bertha could be south of Bermuda by Friday.

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photo by Jeff Ragovin

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Summer is here! Well, not officially but it will certainly feel like it in a few days. This weekend will mark the first heat wave of the season with temperatures reaching the mid 90’s all the way to the coast. The reason for this is an air mass moving into our area where the wind will shift from the northeast to the southwest as the front passes. As the winds shift from the southwest, warm humid air will be pumped into our region. A major heat outbreak will spread from DC northward. We are looking at temperatures in NYC at 96 on Saturday. DC will be looking at temperatures around 100 for three days straight. You can find me on the beach this weekend.
I'd also like to call attention to Jeff's weather Forecast from April which called for above normal heat activity despite cooling.
photo credit: Jeff Ragovin, Fire Island

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 07:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Well it's that time of the year again when Klotzbach and Gray from the Colorado State University come out with their annual Atlantic Tropical activity forecast. This year, they are predicting an above average probability of a major hurricane making landfall on US property. The total storms they are predicting around 15, 8 of those will mature to hurricanes and 4 will be strong to intense hurricanes. The forecast is currently calling for increased activity due to the weakened El Niño and above normal sea temperature readings. As we move three days into the Hurricane season, Arthur has already formed which is an indicator of early tropical conditions existing.

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This cat disrupted a very happy duck couple when he snagged the male and ran off with him in his mouth. There was nothing much I could do as it was too late. The female spent the rest of the weekend searching for her mate, but clearly to her dismay there were no remains to be found. It was all very sad

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In Myanmar (Burma), Tropical Cyclone Nargis, a super strong category 4 hurricane caused major destruction and death. Nargis made landfall in the Irrawaddy River Delta region, and then lost some strength before striking the nation's largest city, Yangon. The storm is being blamed as the deadliest natural disaster in Myanmar's recorded history with over 25,000 deaths, and the worst in the world since the 2004 tsunami.

It is the second major cyclone in just six months to make landfall after forming in the Bay of Bengal. Tropical Cyclone Sidr killed 3,300 and devastated the rice crop in Bangladesh in November.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 10:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Despite recent below normal weather conditions, the summer outlook for 2008 looks to be on the warmer side. As I’ve said in the past, Jeff’s Weather looks at climateological data and trends based on the Climate Prediction Centers models and charts. I can only take a hunch on the data to and make assumptions. That being said, the outlook for late May, June and July shows increased above normal temperatures for New York and New England. It also shows below normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 10:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It's that time of the year again when meterologists take their first shot at predictions for the 2008 Hurricane Season. The Colorado State University team calls for a well above aberage hurricane season. ( this is not a suprise) It seems every year we hear the same forecasts. The reason for this quoted from William Gray "Current oceanic and atmospheric trends indicate that we will likely have an active Atlantic basin hurricane season". The forecast calls for 15 named storms in the Atlantic, eight of them to become Hurricanes and 4 to become intense of major hurricanes.

Current conditions across the Atlantic ocean are favorable for an active season as the current sea surface temperature pattern in the Atlantic is typical from past active seasons. The main rise in temps in 2008 is because of a positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

The hurricane forecast team reiterated its probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil:

A 69 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2008 (the long-term average probability is 52 percent).

A 45 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent)

A 44 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30 percent).
The team will issue seasonal updates of its 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane activity forecast on June 3, Aug. 5, Sept. 2 and Oct. 1.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 11:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

An analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center shows that the average temperature for March in the US ranked near average for the past 113 years. It was the 63rd warmest March since record-keeping began in the United States in 1895. The average global land temperature last month was the warmest on record and ocean surface temperatures were the 13th warmest. Combining the land and the ocean temperatures, the overall global temperature ranked the second warmest for the month of March. Global temperature averages have been recorded since 1880.

A few highlights:

Snowpack conditions dropped in many parts of the West in March, but in general, heavy snowfall during December-February has left the western snow pack among the healthiest in more than a decade, with most locations near to above average.

In the Southeast, a powerful tornado moved through downtown Atlanta on March 14, causing significant damage to many buildings. This was one of 90 tornado reports from the Southeast in March.

The global land surface temperature was the warmest on record for March, 3.3°F above the 20th century mean of 40.8°F. Temperatures more than 8°F above average covered much of the Asian continent. Two months after the greatest January snow cover extent on record on the Eurasian continent, the unusually warm temperatures led to rapid snow melt, and March snow cover extent on the Eurasian continent was the lowest on record.

The global surface (land and ocean surface) temperature was the second warmest on record for March in the 129-year record, 1.28°F above the 20th century mean of 54.9°F. The warmest March on record (1.33°F above average) occurred in 2002. Credit: NOAA

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 10:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

It was a great week for technology and weather! Temps in the 70's and sunny. It was picture perfect. Big news this week as well: Buddy Media, the company I work for and responsible for my lack of weather posts the past 6 months has raised $6.5 million in a second round from Softbank, European Founders Fund, Greycroft Partners, Ron Conway, as well as its previous backers.. Buddy Media previously raised $1.5 million from Howard Lindzon, Peter Thiel, Roger Ehrenberg Mark Pincus and James Altucher, for a total $8 million. With the new funding, we officially launched our own ad network. I'm very pleased at the success so far -- hats off to Michael Lazerow and Kass Lazerow for kicking things into high gear. More great news to come.

In this shot: Michael Lazerow, Howard Lindzon, Jeff Ragovin

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So, I've been growing tomatoes since January in an Aerogarden in my NYC Apartment. It's been fun to watch but hardly worth the wait as it will only produce at most 20 cherry tomatoes. I would imagine the Aerogarden goes through a lot of electricity as well. At the end of the day, it was fun to be able to grow something in the middle of winter!

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Took these shots from my place. Scary! Finally got to move home

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We'll see a break in tri-state area as a weak area of high pressure settles in Thursday. Did anyone catch the big storm Wed night? It was amazing.. Full or partial sunshine will be enough to steer temperatures to highs of 50-55 degrees.

It is best to not expect for this to last, because the next storm is already in the making. A complex winter storm will swing northeast from the Gulf Coast Thursday night and Friday bringing rain back to the area.

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As we move into the weekend, a blast of bitter cold air will move past the Midwest and the Northeast this weekend. The howling winds accompanying the frigid air will create dangerously cold wind chills. The subzero-feeling air will then spread over the entire Midwest through Saturday night and into the Northeast on Sunday. Temperatures of minus 40° or lower will have a foothold on most of North Dakota and northern Minnesota during this time. West to northwest winds across the Mid-Atlantic and Upstate New York could gust to 45 mph at times. Daytime temperatures Sunday will move down to the 30s from Boston to Washington and in the 20s and teens from northern Maine to western Pennsylvania and West Virginia. For the first time in awhile, lake-effect snow will fall downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure over southeast New Hampshire and Down East Maine could produce a foot of snow. More inclement weather, possibly a wintry mess, is in store for the region by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Posted by Jeff Ragovin at 07:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

A major nor'easter is beginning to brew in the Atlantic today and will impact northern parts of the mid-Atlantic and New England tonight into Monday. The heaviest snow is expected to fall near the coast of New England starting later tonight.

The coastal area of low pressure will move northward today, causing rain and thunderstorms along the East Coast from Virginia to Florida. Some areas already have received rainfall from this storm system; however, the beneficial rain for the region is localized and mainly along the coast.

The South Regional News story reports that the storm will develop today and will bring more short-lived shower activity to eastern parts of the Carolinas to southeastern Virginia.

The Northeast will have one more day of calm weather before the storm starts to impact the region later tonight into Monday.

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I apologize for the lack of activity the past couple months. As some of you already know, I left Acronym Media, a leader in search marketing solutions to head up business development and partnerships for Buddy Media. It has an been amazing first month with many new client acquisitions and explosive user growth. I've never seen anything like it before. Buddy Media's Acebucks has become the largest loyalty marketing program on Facebook. Acebucks has grown to over 1.2 million users and has been adding 40,000-50,000 users a day. Our current focus is creating sticky, super viral applications that help users get more out of Facebook and other social media. Michael Lazerow, Founder and CEO secured some of the biggest investors in the industry (Howard Lindzon, Peter Thiel, Mark Pincus and James Altucher). Mike's got a killer background-- He was the founder of University Wire (owned now by Columbia Broadcasting System (CBS) and GOLF.com (owned by Time Inc.). I'm really enjoying working with him.

Here is the idea behind Acebucks: Users who install the application get rewarded to do the things that we like them to do. Play games, purchase merchandise, and complete offers. They do all this while being part of a fun growing community. Acebucks are redeemed by the user to buy real ticket items like Ipods, electronics, airline tickets and more. We have also launched Storefront, an ebay-like application where everything is bought and sold for Acebucks. On Friday, November 29th, BBC World news came to the buddy media offices to find a little more about the people behind Acebucks. They were very interested in hearing how our company is now creating a micro-economy in the social media world. In recent news, Buddy Media acquired Crushes on Thursday. Crushes has over 1 million current users and will be tied in with Acebucks. This will increase Buddy Media's user base to over 2 million. A public API is also available to developers who wish to integrate Acebucks with their applications.

I recently spoke at the Web 2.0 Meetup
run by Brett Petersel and Oz Sultan and I had a blast. They did an amazing job at organizing many thought leaders and web strategists in one venue. There were hundreds who attended. I look forward to the next one. Some shots from the event: ( Right : Jeff Ragovin and Brett Petersel)

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Amy Houghton Warren's Photos from Orange county

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So what exactly is going on? It's October 5th and the the temperature today is looking to hit 86. That is 10 degrees warmer than it was July 4th. The warm air mass will be responsible for summer heat across much of the easy coast until Monday. This time of the year we typically see temps in the 50's and 60's by now. It almost feels like there hasn't been much of a Fall. Ample warm air this weekend will set the stage for a beach day. Get out and enjoy it while you can.

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