Hurricane season heats up: Global temperatures hit records
It’s been a hot summer across much of the nation - especially in the Northeast. It also happened to be the second warmest July on record, behind 1998, and the warmest average January-July on record.
All of this points to some very tricky forecasting moving into fall regarding hurricanes. According to NOAA’s recently updated outlook, they call for a 90% chance of an above normal season. NOAA calls 2010 to be the 11th above normal since 1995. As we move into the end of August (sad) the conditions start becoming a little more favorable for tropical development.
This year, above average activity is being contributed to three climate factors: La Nina (below average sea surface temps in the pacific), tropical multi-decadal signal (drier conditions in South America and monsoon conditions in Africa and really really above average warm water. In fact, this year the ocean temps are blowing numbers off the charts. The global ocean surface temperature for July was the fifth warmest, and for January-July 2010 was the second warmest on record, behind 1998.
If you’ve been out to the beaches you’ll have noticed, on certain days it felt like the Gulf across much of the North East. All of these factors point to a nasty September for hurricanes.
Today, tropical storm Danielle forms which makes it the 4 named tropical systems to develop this season. The current forecast is as follows:
• 14-20 Named Storms,
• 8-12 Hurricanes
• 14-6 Major Hurricanes
During June – July 2010, there were two named storms (Hurricane Alex and Tropical Storm Bonnie) which both formed in the Atlantic basin.
The 2008 Hurricane Season is in full swing as the tropics heat up into September. Today, September 1st 2008, Hurricane Gustav made landfall over Terrebonne Parish, southwest of New Orleans. Gustav weakened to a strong Category 2 storm before making landfall. This dangerous storm still has winds near 110 mph and is causing widespread flooding and damage. Gustav currently has a central pressure at 957 MB and is moving to the NW at 15 MPH. In the Caribbean, Hurricane Hanna has sustained winds at 75 mph and could see intensification in the next few days. The current movement is to the west-southwest at 5 mph. Hanna is expected to turn to the northwest Wednesday aiming it directly at the Carolina coastline. The areas on the lookout for Hanna stretch from Florida through North Carolina, which will likely endure rough surf and rip currents initially from Hanna. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Three tropical waves and one tropical storm have now formed. Depression # 9 is now Tropical Storm Ike and is moving to the west at 16 mph. 
Summer is here! Well, not officially but it will certainly feel like it in a few days. This weekend will mark the first heat wave of the season with temperatures reaching the mid 90’s all the way to the coast. The reason for this is an air mass moving into our area where the wind will shift from the northeast to the southwest as the front passes. As the winds shift from the southwest, warm humid air will be pumped into our region. A major heat outbreak will spread from DC northward. We are looking at temperatures in NYC at 96 on Saturday. DC will be looking at temperatures around 100 for three days straight. You can find me on the beach this weekend. 
Well it's that time of the year again when Klotzbach and Gray from the Colorado State University come out with their annual Atlantic Tropical activity forecast. This year, they are predicting an above average probability of a major hurricane making landfall on US property. The total storms they are predicting around 15, 8 of those will mature to hurricanes and 4 will be strong to intense hurricanes. The forecast is currently calling for increased activity due to the weakened El Niño and above normal sea temperature readings. As we move three days into the Hurricane season, Arthur has already formed which is an indicator of early tropical conditions existing. 
Despite recent below normal weather conditions, the summer outlook for 2008 looks to be on the warmer side. As I’ve said in the past, Jeff’s Weather looks at climateological data and trends based on the Climate Prediction Centers models and charts. I can only take a hunch on the data to and make assumptions. That being said, the outlook for late May, June and July shows increased above normal temperatures for New York and New England. It also shows below normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. 
It's that time of the year again when meterologists take their first shot at predictions for the 2008 Hurricane Season. The Colorado State University team calls for a well above aberage hurricane season. ( this is not a suprise) It seems every year we hear the same forecasts. The reason for this quoted from William Gray "Current oceanic and atmospheric trends indicate that we will likely have an active Atlantic basin hurricane season". The forecast calls for 15 named storms in the Atlantic, eight of them to become Hurricanes and 4 to become intense of major hurricanes. 
An analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center shows that the average temperature for March in the US ranked near average for the past 113 years. It was the 63rd warmest March since record-keeping began in the United States in 1895. The average global land temperature last month was the warmest on record and ocean surface temperatures were the 13th warmest. Combining the land and the ocean temperatures, the overall global temperature ranked the second warmest for the month of March. Global temperature averages have been recorded since 1880. 
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